A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
